White House: Europe 'unrecognisable in 20 years or less'

President Trump's "America First" agenda has been spelt out in a new White House National Security Strategy that should make stark reading for allies and foes of the United States alike.

The new 33-page document outlines an upending of American foreign policy objectives and priorities which have stood largely unchanged through different administrations stretching back decades.

The document says American strategy went "astray" over many years. It seeks to reframe America's strategic interests as being far narrower now than at any time in its modern history.

Among the key points, the document says:

• Europe faces "civilizational erasure" and could be "unrecognisable in 20 years or less"

• "Certain NATO members will become majority non-European" within a few decades

•​​​​​​​ America will "shift away" from the "burden" of the Middle East seeing it now as a "source and destination of international investment"

•​​​​​​​ In the Western hemisphere, America should pursue a policy of "enlist and expand… restoring American pre-eminence"

•​​​​​​​ In Africa, American policy focus should be on trade not "providing and spreading liberal ideology"

In black-and-white, the text articulates a dramatic strategic shift which has been playing out at lightning speed over the past year.

The document underlines the end of the concept of America as an arbiter of the democratic rules-based order.

"American foreign policy elites convinced themselves that permanent American domination of the entire world was in the best interests of our country. Yet the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests," the paper says.

Every US administration publishes at least one National Security Strategy during a presidential term.

The focus of this one is starkly different from that published by President Biden in 2022.

It's also notably different from the document which President Trump published during his first term. His 2017 paper cast the world as a contest between "repressive regimes" and "free societies".

This new one places the necessity to do trade above the imposition of values.

"We seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories."

Mass migration and Europe

The new document is highly critical of mass migration.

It warns that uncontrolled migration is destroying the concept of nation states which could impact America's strategic alliances and the countries it counts as reliable allies.

The paper is particularly critical of Europe, of the European Union as a concept and of individual European nations.

"Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less," the paper says.

It continues: "As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.

"Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation."

The document's language around the politics of governing parties across Europe is particularly stark.

Regarding Ukraine, the document says: "The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition.

"A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those government's subversion of democratic processes."

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The document outlines how his administration will seek to support "patriotic European parties".

This is entirely in line with President Trump's rhetoric but still represents a major departure from the longstanding principle of not interfering in the politics of allies.

It says: "American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations' individual character and history.

"America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism."

Ukraine and Russia

On European-Russia relations, the document raises the prospect of war but curiously does not presume that such a conflict would involve America.

"Managing European relations with Russia will require significant US diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states."

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By contrast, President Biden's National Security Strategy, published in 2022, underlined repeatedly the "iron-clad" commitment the United States had to Europe's security.

Chinese risk and opportunity

The document presents Asia and the Indo-Pacific region as a source of opportunity for strategic and economic cooperation.

"President Trump is building alliances and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific that will be the bedrock of security and prosperity long into the future…"

And specifically on China, the paper presents a goal of "economic vitality" achieved through a balanced economic relationship between the two countries combined with an "ongoing focus on deterrence to prevent war".

Deterrence would be achieved, it outlines, by maintaining preeminent military strength over China.

It says: "This combined approach can become a virtuous cycle as strong American deterrence opens up space for more disciplined economic action, while more disciplined economic action leads to greater American resources to sustain deterrence in the long term."

Hemispheres of influence

In line with President Trump's focus on spheres of influence, particular focus is given to the western hemisphere.

There are clear references to the impact of drugs from south and central America into the US and more subtle references to control of the arctic.

"The United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region," the paper says.

It continues: "We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our hemisphere."

(c) Sky News 2025: White House: Europe 'unrecognisable in 20 years or less'