Tories face existential challenge from Reform - but electoral pact may not be answer

Even when the Conservatives slumped to a historic defeat at the general election, few would have thought that one of the world's oldest political parties would soon be overtaken in the polls by a young pretender on the radical right.

Fast forward two years and the Conservatives are locked in a battle for supremacy with Reform UK which largely defeated them in last May's local elections and has been securing defections from Tory councillors, former MPs, and even some current MPs.

It's led some to suggest the two parties should unite to take on Labour rather than have a split right risk another left victory. If that happened, it would not be the first time Reform's leader, Nigel Farage, decided not to stand candidates in Conservative seats - his then-Brexit Party did so in 2019 - a year when the Tories enjoyed a comfortable victory.

But now, modelling by Sky News and exclusive polling with Ipsos suggest that hopes that an electoral pact might offer a path back to power for the right are misplaced. In fact, Reform and the Tories could risk losing as many votes as they gain.

Nationally, the latest voting intention polls from YouGov show that Reform is leading with around 23% of the vote while the Conservatives are taking 17%.

Simply adding these figures together might suggest that the two parties would dominate in the polls if they joined forces.

But the answer is not so straightforward, Sky News research reveals.

The polling suggests the British public has limited appetite for electoral pacts on either end of the political spectrum.

Ipsos surveyed 2,518 adults in Britain between 20 and 24 February about various possible electoral pacts and a Conservative-Reform alliance performed worst of all - with almost half of all Britons surveyed against the idea and just 18% in favour.

A pact was defined as the parties not standing candidates against each other in their target seats.

More Conservative supporters say they would oppose a pact (39%) than support it (31%), with total net support at -8% among this group.

Current Reform supporters are slightly more supportive of an alliance (38%), though a high number also say they would oppose it (30%). On average, the pact sees just +2% net support among the current Conservative and Reform base.

"The surface appeal of a pact doesn't survive scrutiny," says Rob Ford, professor of politics at Manchester University.

"Though the Conservatives and Reform both draw from the same side of the political spectrum, the two parties are now quite distinct demographically and attitudinally."

This is reflected by the polling, which suggests voters on the right don't see the parties as interchangeable.

Half of Reform supporters (50%) say they dislike the Conservatives, while just a third (31%) like Kemi Badenoch's party.

Current Conservative supporters appear to be even more anti-Reform, with 57% saying they dislike Farage's party, and just 24% saying they like it.

Sky News elections analyst Professor Will Jennings, of the University of Southampton, explains: "As a growing number of voters have defected from the Conservatives to Reform, those who remain tend to be loyalists who are not fans of Nigel Farage, while those who have switched sides tend to hold their former party in low regard."

This means that a Reform-Conservative pact - far from simply combining both parties' vote shares - could instead frustrate supporters and even risk losing as many votes as it gains.

A liberal-left response

The problem for the parties is not only that a pact isn't popular among their own supporters. A right-wing alliance could generate a new challenge - a stronger alliance on the left.

"A pact between the Conservatives and Reform could set off an arms race - a united right might beat a split left, but a pact on the right could encourage a similar response from the left," said Professor Ford.

Ipsos polling suggests an alliance between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party is relatively more popular among Britons overall, with a net opposition of -15% compared to -30% for a Reform-Conservative pact.

On average, current supporters of the three major left-wing parties were much more open to joining forces than voters on the right - with a net support of +23% (an average of 45% support and 22% opposition) across Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters- notably higher than support for an equivalent pact on the right.

If a pact between the Conservatives and Reform triggered coordination between parties on the left, polling suggests that the Labour-Lib Dem-Green alliance may emerge stronger.

Who is winning the battle for the right?

So, if the parties on the right have better prospects competing apart, which is stronger in constituencies across the country?

Professors Jennings and Ford have developed a Reform Voting Index (RVI) to gauge which of the two right-wing parties currently holds the advantage in each constituency across Britain.

It combines latest polling on Reform with demographic information like age, education and EU referendum vote, to estimate whether constituencies lean more towards Farage's party or the Conservatives.

With their popularity rising sharply since the last election, our index suggests that Reform is ahead in the "battle for the right" for now, with a clear lead in three times as many seats as the Conservatives in Sky's Index.

Reform is ahead in 316 seats across Britain, compared to just 93 constituencies where the Conservatives are the leading right-wing party.

A further 223 seats are considered too close to call, meaning a divided right-wing vote currently looks likely.

Reform is clearly leading over the Conservatives in most of Scotland and Wales, where devolved elections will be held in May.

It is also ahead of the Tories in London - with all but three constituencies leaning towards Reform over the Conservatives. However, in most cases this is a fight for second place at best, as most London seats were won by Labour in the last general election.

It's a different story in the South of England where the index suggests that the Conservatives are still strongest in dozens of seats, which might, in part, be down to their demographic profile.

The biggest battleground though appears to be the East of England, where both James Cleverly and Badenoch are MPs. Here, it is too close to call in most constituencies.

Perhaps most alarmingly for the Tory leader, the Reform Voting Index suggests that less than half (58) of the 121 seats won by the Conservative Party in 2024 remain solidly Tory. Many (59) are too close between the two parties, and four lean more towards Reform.

Silver linings for the Conservatives

But our Ipsos polling suggests there's still opportunity for the Conservatives to recover.

It is no secret that much of Reform's post-election surge in the polls has been driven by voters gained from the Tories since 2024.

This has created a cohort of "inbetweeners", people who now support Reform but voted Conservative in the last general election.

As a result, current Reform supporters appear to have somewhat different views than the core Reform base who voted for Farage's party in 2024, Ipsos polling finds.

For example, Reform's current supporters are slightly more likely to say they are open to voting for the Conservatives in the next election (24%) than 2024 Reform voters (20%).

Badenoch is also more popular among the current Reform cohort - with an average "like" rating of 4.5 out of 10 - than Farage is among current Conservative supporters (3.5), suggesting it may be easier for Badenoch to win back lost voters than for Farage to make further gains from the Conservatives.

Long road to the next election

Despite that, it is clear from the polls, and Sky's Reform Voting Index, that Reform is currently the stronger party on the right.

Our Index analysis is a snapshot focused only on the right and doesn't account for crucial factors like Labour's collapse in support or the rise of the Green Party.

Both those factors and the polls could shift significantly in the three years before the next general election must be held.

Indeed, over the past three years, Reform has tripled its support in the polls (from 8% to 24%).

But for the moment, our polling and analysis suggest that a pact between Reform and the Conservatives may not decisively resolve the "battle for the right".

And, while Reform lead the Tories for now, there is plenty of room for change before voters cast their ballots to choose the next Parliament.

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Methodology

Sky's Reform Voting Index was developed with election experts Professor Will Jennings and Professor Rob Ford. In order to estimate how strongly constituencies may lean towards Reform, the following demographics are used in a model of the 2024 Reform vote in parliamentary constituencies in Great Britain: estimated share of people who voted to Leave the EU in 2016, the share of 2016 Leave vote squared, share of the constituency population belonging to an ethnic minority group, and share with no academic qualifications. This model was selected after testing a wider range of demographic variables.

The index combines these with Reform's current polling (the latest poll by YouGov) to estimate the party's support at a constituency level. The index does not account for changes in other parties' polling since the last general election, but does incorporate information about which parties Reform is currently securing its gains in the polls from.

All other polling data presented in this article is by Ipsos exclusive for Sky News, online survey of 2,518 adults between 20 and 24 February 2026, across Great Britain.

For a companion analysis on the "battle for the right", read this piece from Sky's political editor Beth Rigby here.

(c) Sky News 2026: Tories face existential challenge from Reform - but electoral pact may not be answer