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A Bank of England rate hike is still possible despite easing inflation outlook

Thursday, 18 June 2026 12:11

By Paul Kelso, business and economics correspondent

Announcing its latest interest rates decision the morning after a thrilling England World Cup win, the Bank of England continues to put its foot on the ball.

The 7-2 vote to hold rates at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive time comes despite economic and geopolitical news that might have given cause for boss Andrew Bailey to signal a more daring approach to tackling inflation.

The nascent peace deal between the US and Iran has already brought the oil price below $80 a barrel, and domestic inflation, the Bank's primary goal, was flat in May, with a reduction in food prices suggesting some relief for households.

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While Bailey welcomed these developments he and most of his colleagues on the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) team remain cautious.

While oil prices have come down there is concern that the peace may be unstable, and that almost four months of elevated energy prices could mean there is "second-round" inflation already in the pipeline yet to show up in the domestic economy.

Their central calculation remains the same as when the war began. Is the weakness in the UK economy sufficient to offset the inflationary impact of energy prices, and if so, can they avoid increasing rates further?

The outlook is certainly more positive than six weeks ago, when the Bank published forecasts including a potential inflationary spike above 6%.

That scenario now looks unlikely and the outlook is brighter, but Bailey and his colleagues remain on the defensive.

England might be winning on the pitch but, at the Bank, caution is not about to be thrown to the wind.

Sky News